Opportunity Radar
Where technical capability, quantified economic need, technological regimes, and bottleneck states meet — a full-stack translation radar.
Technological Regimes: Classifies industries into Entrepreneurial (Schumpeter Mark I) vs. Routinized (Schumpeter Mark II) regimes, explaining why capital-intensive physics/semiconductor sectors demand basic science while software recombines existing tools.
5-Stage Bottleneck State Machine: Pinpoints whether a technology is Science Blocked, Enablement Blocked, Valley of Death, Regime Mismatch, or Commercially Diffusing.
Financial multiples & compute capex installation surge ahead of broad enterprise production absorption.
Decoupling between speculative infrastructure spend and regulatory/societal absorption rules.
Unmet societal needs in healthcare, energy grid resilience, and labor productivity drive deployment into production capital.
| Technology | Industry | Regime | Wave & Phase | Structural Tension | Capability | Economic Need | Adoption Events | Translation Latency | Bottleneck State | Hurdle Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shape Memory Alloys | Smart Metals | hybrid | — | — | 0.229 | $40.7B🛡️ Audit | 19 | 8 yr | Commercially Diffusing | Low capability, has evidence |
| Self-Driving Vehicles |
Not enough economic data yet (5)
| Technology | Industry | Regime | Wave & Phase | Structural Tension | Capability | Adoption Events | Bottleneck State | Hurdle Tier | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steam Locomotion & Heavy Rail | Rail & Mechanical Engineering | hybrid | The Age of Steam & Railways maturity | low17% | — | —🛡️ Audit | 0 | 8 yr | Valley of Death | Insufficient data |
| Mass Steelmaking & Polyphase AC Grids |