Adopting expansive postures causes hormonal changes (lower cortisol / higher testosterone) and increased risk tolerance
Weak-link patterns
Brief §8's named failure modes, computed from this claim's own paper roles and status -- not a single weakness score. Patterns B and E aren't implemented yet (need dependency-graph machinery, docs/BASIC_ROADMAP.md Phase 11).
No pattern fires on this claim.
Evidence map
Position shows direction, circle area shows citation count. Click a paper for the reason its role was assigned.
Evidence dimensions
Eight independent 0–5 judgments, each with a written rationale. Deliberately never summed into one score.
Original result rests on one small-sample (n=42) study; larger independent tests have not supported the core hormonal/behavioral claim.
Multiple independent groups have tried.
The two independent direct replications found null results on the original hormonal/behavioral claim.
Both independent replications sit in the original experimental paradigm; no materially different design has tested it.
Original study's small sample and flexible analysis were specifically flagged by a published p-curve critique; Ranehill's replication was well-powered and preregistered by contrast.
A narrower sub-claim - subjective felt power - has somewhat more consistent support than the hormonal/behavioral claims.
Consensus, including from one of the original authors, moved toward skepticism on the hormonal/behavioral effects.
Small-sample false positive and flexible/underpowered original analysis are well-articulated alternatives.
Scored by human.
Why this status
The derivation rule, evaluated top to bottom, first match wins. This is the rule itself — not a confidence score standing in for one.
- 1Unknown — unexplored
4 paper rows (needs <3) and evidence_strength=1 (needs <=1); both required
- 2Unknown — conflicting evidence
(a) 2 failure vs 0 success rows -> no; (b) 1 review rows — opposite-verdict test is a human judgment, not a count; (c) 0 conceptual failure vs 0 conceptual success, 1 original -> no
- 3Unknown — underdetermined
alternative_explanations=1 (needs <=1) AND evidence_strength=1 (needs >=3)
- 4Established
independent_replication=1 (>=4), evidence_strength=1 (>=4), consensus=1 (>=4)
- 5Strong, domain-limited
evidence_strength=1 (>=4) AND independent_replication=1 (>=3), plus a written scope limit (human judgment)
- 6Active consensus, incomplete
consensus=1 (>=4) AND (methodological_quality=1 <=3 OR alternative_explanations=1 <=2)
- 7Plausible, under active investigation
independent_replication=1 (needs ==2) AND evidence_strength=1 (needs 2-3), plus recent activity (human judgment)
- 8Speculative
2/4 rows are empirical (needs 0) AND evidence_strength=1 (needs <=1)
- 9Preliminarymatched
4 non-theoretical row(s) exist AND independent_replication=1 (needs <=1)
Recorded rationale
v3 rule 9: a non-theoretical row exists and independent_replication = 1 (<= 1). Rule 2 does not fire - only one review row, and replication counts are 2 failures vs 0 successes. Naive citation-only guess was 'established'; divergence material. Pilot 1.